DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z WED 02/04 - 06Z THU 03/04 2003
ISSUED: 01/04 21:01Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE BRITISH ISLES, SOUTHERN SCANDINAVIA, THE BENELUX, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN FRANCE, GERMANY, THE ALPINE REGION AND ITALY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GREECE.

SYNOPSIS

A TROUGH QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN EUROPE AS A STRONG NNWLY JET ON ITS WESTERN FLANK MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER GREECE, MERGING WITH THE NEW TROUGH. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF POLAR AIR. MAINLY DURING DAYTIME AND NEAR EMBEDDED TROUGHS, TUNDERSTORMS FORM WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. GRADUALLY SUBSIDENCE WILL STABILISE THE AIR-MASS OVER FRANCE AND BRITAIN FROM THE WEST, DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION

...BENELUX, NORTHERN FRANCE AND WESTERN GERMANY...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING DAYTIME. SINCE BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG, STORMS MAY ORGANISE INTO LINEAR MODES. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. IF A WELL-DEFINED SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS, WIND GUSTS COULD BE SEVERE (>50KTS) AND AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED.

...WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN AREA TOMORROW DURING DAYTIME. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTFRONTAL. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW GIVEN BOTH LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

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